Both tonnage and solid content of the 2016 crop were disappointing, with overall tonnage 15%-20% below historical averages and expectation. Poor quality of water and limited availability due to drought continue to be a significant factor in the recent underperformance of California garlic crop. Availability for garlic will be severely restricted and inventory carries will remain very low going into the 2017 season.
Chinese garlic harvest has come to an end, all fresh garlic is now in cold storage. Current crop pricing in China is still at high levels with no expectation that the pricing will fall. Many factors contributed to the pricing increase:
- Crop was down 20% to 25% compared to last year
- Limited carryover from last crop
- Speculators holding onto garlic which is driving prices up
- Garlic prices have continued to remain high due to the gap between supply and demand. Estimated volumes that were processed in October are around 10000mt, nationwide to date 60000mt has been processed. The expectation is that only 70000mt of dehydrated garlic will be process however this is far behind the annual demand of 160000mt. Prices are not expected to come down as fresh garlic is now all stored in refrigerated storage and prices are expected to remain steady in the coming months.