July 11, 2019

The Californian NASS Objective Estimate was released today and the number is 2.2
billion pounds. This is 12% down from the Subjective estimate that came out in May.
The estimate yield per acre is down 10% on last year and if this ends up being correct, it
will be the lowest yield in a decade.
In the recent past, the largest variance between the subjective and objective estimates
was in 2013. In 2013 the subjective estimate was 2 billion pounds and the objective was
1.85 billion pounds. The actual crop ended up at being 2 billion pounds so its worth to
remember this is still an estimate.
Last year California had a damaging frost during the bloom and the estimate was 2.45
billion pounds (the crop ended up being 2.27 billion pounds). This year, nothing as
obviously bad had been reported and there are more trees in the ground than ever
before so it is fair to say this low estimate would come as a surprise / shock to the
industry and until harvest actually takes place later in the year, it will only keep prices
firm and offers hard to come by.