January 30, 2019
The Californian January shipment report has just been released.
• Shipments remain strong
• China trade war hasn’t really affected the USA almond industry at all. Australia
will shortly fill that void with new season and will be able to command a
substantial premium whilst still undercutting USA prices
• The current USA crop is estimated to be 2.30 billion pounds – the objective
estimate was 2.45 billion pounds so the crop is definitely shorter than first
thought and this is reflected in current pricing
• Prices from current crop are firm and availabilities of some grades becoming
Assuming there are no disasters with the Californian bloom, new crop USA (Sept/Oct
2019 onwards) will be the largest almond crop ever and the industry will have to keep
finding new markets.
2019 harvest has commenced with Nonpareil available firstly, mid to late March
onwards. Pricing for other varieties like Carmel will be available in 4-6 weeks, later
depending on weather conditions during the time of harvest.
The firming USD pricing and lower exchange rate will keep pricing above 2018 levels for
the start of the season and as mentioned earlier, strong Chinese demand for Australian
almonds will also provide added export potential at very attractive levels, should
increased tariffs remain between China and the USA.