July 15, 2018
The USDA released the 2018 Objective Almond Estimate with a figure of 2.45 billion pounds (kernel basis). This is based on 1,070,000 bearing acres.
The 2.45 billion pound number is up 6.5% on May’s Subjective Crop Estimate and 7.9% up on the 2017 crop.
The market remains tight for nearby shipments and for good quality snacking almonds, however it seems the larger estimate number combined with increased trade restrictions, shipping to China and India will only put downward pressure on prices for the near term.
For Non Pareil’s specifically, the % is well down so we feel there will be a large gap from Non Pareils to other lower grades.
USA JUNE SHIPMENT REPORT
The June shipment report has been released with shipments 11.5% down on the same time last year and new crop sales down slightly from 2017 also.
Buyers are generally covering cautiously due to uncertainty on tariffs and currency fluctuations yet growers so far have resisted pushing big volumes of new crop sales. A decision making point will be reached shortly as the market is generally not sold or covered long.
With the increased tariffs on USA Almonds with both China and India, Australian Almonds will enjoy a big advantage over the US for exports.
There is now not much remaining of the 2018 Australian crop. If there are any enquiries, please advise sooner rather than later.